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DAY 1GLOBSEC 2019Side Events
[ June 6, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

Short Summary from Side Events: DAY 1

CSI Launch

Against the backdrop of a worsening security situation in Europe, participants at the launch of the Cooperative Security Initiative at the Bratislava Forum pledged to build new security ecosystems and engage decision makers as well as influencers to raise the profile of the current security challenges to better involve the general public.

Building a Nurturing Ecosystem for AI 

Participants of the side event on AI ecosystems call for more regional cooperation between emerging AI plattforms. They see the wider region of Central Europe with existing deep economic ties as a natural space for cooperation. Possible common actios were discussed and road map outlined.

Cyber Crisis Simulation Exercise: Navigating Transatlantic Disruptions, Conflicts and Opportunities 

Wrapping up the first ever Cyber Crisis Simulation Exercise at GLOBSEC 2019 Bratislava Forum. Participants used cognitive and emotional intelligence to come up with the best feasible and implementable solutions for their scenarios. Thank you to all our partners for their support! 

The Ins and Outs of the next EU Budget 

Brexit will create a large gap in the EU budget, the most difficult part of the budget negotiations seems to be the cohesion policy. Speakers of the closed-door session Ins and Out of the Next EU Budget agreed that there are many dividing lines among EU member states. A broader discussion on whether the Multiannual Financial Framework actually provides proper political guidance and strategic political goals that position the EU as a strong actor who faces many new challenges.  

DAY 1GLOBSEC 2019
[ June 6, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

Photo Report : DAY 1

Impressions from first day at GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum 2019

DAY 1GLOBSEC 2019
[ June 6, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

LIVE FEED: DAY 1

  • Opening DAY 1
  • Globsec Talks: The EU in Global Crisis of Leadership, by Garton Ash.

    The world is facing various challenges. Mr. Garton Ash particularly highlighted the multipolar or no polar world order featured by rise of so-called private superpowers, where habits of collaboration and peaceful conflict resolution are missing from traditional political stakeholders. Secondly, cold war between USA and China characterized by global multidimensional competition. And third dimension refers to a new one, as Mr Garton Ash put it: “This is the first period when human kind is threating life on its own planet”. This dimension is featured with new threats including but not limited to climate change, digital revolution and utilization of AI. The crisis in which the world is today should be addressed with a long-term strategy, where the EU plays a major role. The EU is not an option, rather a necessity. Mr Garton Ash stresses that:

    We need EU to defend our values, interests and shared way of life; we need it for ourselves in Europe to explain to next generation what the EU is for. Europe needs to discover its new story.”

  • GLOBSEC Talk: Can We Reverse Climate Change?

    The climate is very well understood. We know that biodiversity, biomass, and accumulated organic matter are the basis of the oxygenated atmosphere, freshwater system, soil fertility, and biodiversity. We have to take large-scale action based on what we know. It is not that difficult, we are just not focused on it. We must shift our exisiting paradigms, and commit to the rejuvenation of our land on a global scale. Yes it is still possible to reverse climate change.

  • “Sustaining political Islam was the solution for prevention of violent extremism.”

    – Emmanuel Dupuy

  • Fuel to the Fire: Weaponising Islam in Europe
    The threat of political Islam is being perpetuated due to the political agenda of certain countries. Many European Muslims choose to join groups like ISIS because of perceived disenfranchisement. More needs to be done to support credible moderate voices within Islam and help sustain political Islam to effectively counter violent extremism.

  • Globsec CHAT: The Spirit of Sibiu

    The main goal for Romania was to chair the Council as an honest broker, without any side-interest pushed by itself or other member states. In that respect, Mr. Ciamba considers the Romanian presidency a huge success. He also emphasizes that the main message of the Romanian presidency is obvious – to bring back the political cohesion on the top of the agenda,

    “because cohesion means solidarity, means unity and that we stand together against discrimination”.
    H.E. George Ciamba

    Romania aspires to unite the EU member states to be able to do compromises. Other success can be found mainly in the adopted legislation concerning coast guard expansion or delivering own toolbox for future action. 

  • Tackling Climate Crisis: The Business Case

    The climate crisis must be tackled by all aspects of society around the globe. The problem requires collective action and different values to be incorporated into existing system, or a different system altogether and a complete paradigm shift. The sectors of energy, agricultre, infrastructure, and transportation are the most crucial for converting to zero-carbon emissions. In order to achieve this, we must recognise the urgency of the problem. A strong leadership with vision, institutions that translate vision into action, resources, both human and financial, are needed to facilitate the transition and to bring together short- and long-term goals. We must adopt the norms of a low carbon lifestyle, and empower leaders to move us in the right direction. Lastly, we must build trust, leave cynisicm at the door, and believe mindset change is happening in unexpected places, even in the C-suite.

  • Diplomacy for the Post-Rule World

    The OSCE provides value to its member states by providing tools for cooperation but it can not subsitute for lack of political will. It may seem that the states are trying to move beyond the rules framework of the international order, but in reality states want more rules because they are struggling with this disrupted world. International law applies to cyber space but the problem is that for incidents that do not meet the threshold of active conflict there are very few rules.

    “The weakening of those who has been traditionally leading leads to the promotion of organisations are weakened.”- Greminger

    “Business interests have tendency to be much more global than political interests.” – Frank

    “States are facing the whole new world trying to come to the terms, seeking for new rules.” – Grigas

    “There will be different rules for different states, until world will move to better rules.” – Grigas

  • GLOBSEC Talk: Future of War: Still a Human Affair?

    The future of warfare continues to race along the tracks of technological advancement, and the NATO Allies must be able to not only keep up but also foresee these developments in order to best tackle them and preserve peace in the future. NATO Allies must retain their advantage in flexibility, speed in innovation, and interoperability, in the domains of Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, big data analytics, and quantum computing. Developing military applications of civilian technology and methods to counter them is inevitable, as due to the proliferation of knowledge and technology our adversaries are doing so. The best option is to be as far ahead as possible, and retain military superiority through technological superiority. We must pick up the pace to make these improvements.

    “Cyber offense and cyber defence are misleading, we need to focus on cyber intelligence and cyber security.”

    “Sharing of information in the area of big data is a must, not an option. The sharing of information is what make you stronger in the era of big data.”

  • Cloak & Dagger: Enhancing the Resilience of Our Societies

    The nature of threats has evolved to a point where a few milligrams of chemical agents can kill dozens of people within seconds. At the same time, fake news is the sort of threat that can disrupt citizens‘ lives through the internet of things or increasing vaccines hesistency. The only way to meet these challenges is for states and civil society to proactively be running informations campaigns on social media where this misinformation is being perpetuated.

    “Fake news about chemical weapons can undermine organisations” – Gonzáles

     “In terms of health care there are 10 main threats, including climate change, ebola, and vaccination hesitancy” – Schiever

    “The challenge of the world is that technology came first and regulations came second.” – Abel

    “Most often-used tactic in terms of spreading disinformation is not to convince a particular audience, it is rather to confuse the audience.” – Milo

  • End of DAY 1

DAY 1GLOBSEC 2019
[ June 6, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

President Kiska at GLOBSEC: We need a strong and united Europe

The opening speech of Slovak President Andrej Kiska at GLOBSEC 2019 Bratislava Forum:

„After almost five years, my mandate as President of Slovakia is coming to an end. During these years, I have not missed any of the Globsecs. Symbolically, today´s speech, as a president, is also my last foreign policy and security address as a president of the Slovak Republic. I am glad it is here. Where the world comes to discuss the most pressing issues we all face.

So much has happened in these five years. Violation of rules of peace in Europe that we took for sacred since the end of the World War II. Migration, which tested the EU and our solidarity hard. Rise of populism, extremism, or propaganda. But also new technologies that will change our lives for good.

The fact is, that despite all these challenges, after all the difficult times, hearing so often about the end of the European Union and the world, as we know it, we are doing well. The EU is more attractive and stronger than 5 years ago. Stronger and more attractive than sometimes we see it ourselves.

I am a proud European. I am proud that the EU is an economic superpower. And I really wish that we would also become a political superpower. But there is a huge gap between our ambitions and the reality. Anyway it is not a mission impossible. To make it happen, we need to be stronger at home, in our EU – to be more self-confident.

Strong at home

The last two Eurobarometer polls showed historically the highest support for the EU among our publics. Even in countries, where relations with Brussels have significantly worsened. Populists and extremists, who not that long ago portrayed the EU as an evil, and called for all sorts of exits, now speak about reforms instead. Now competing about who will be more pro-European in the public speeches. Even Marine Le Pen doesn´t want to leave the EU anymore. Not even the Eurozone. Reforms, reforms everywhere, we hear. I say, let´s finish first what we have begun – Eurozone, Schengen, truly single market… And of course, let´s look forward, what to do next. Together, in integration – not separation.

The recent European elections showed that people recognize the advantages of being in the EU. The catastrophic visions have not fulfilled. It also showed that if we have a crisis, than it is a crisis largely provoked and fuelled by populists. By those, who aim at destroying our unity. At dissolving our integration successes. And at the same time those, who don´t come with any real solutions.

The results also show, that the crisis largely provoked by populists really exists. But also, that we can cope with it. Because, in the end, majority of EU citizens voted for a serious pro-European policy. They showed great sense of responsibility, and expressed clearly, what is important to them – areas related to our future like the environmental protection, but also the traditional ones – security, stability and prosperity in Europe. And they didn´t get dragged into the manipulations by populists inventing problems to serve just their egoistic interests.

Now we need to keep this support and to react to our citizens´ needs. If we want to fulfil our ambitions, we need to integrate more. The road to Brussels, not the road back to national states with their interests should be the solution. We need to be pro-European. Not only in our speeches. And not only in Brussels. To be European means to respect and not to violate the rule of law. To defend freedom of media and civic society. Because our European Union is not only an economic project. With its funds, single market or free movement. It is a union of values and democratic principles.

Strong abroad

I truly believe in a strong transatlantic bond. I consider NATO collective defence to be the best security guarantee we have ever had. At the same time, I believe in a strong role for the EU in the world affairs. But let´s be realistic: if we want Europe to be relevant, we cannot avoid more integration. And we cannot continue with the statements of concern to be our boldest actions. While others shape the situation on the ground already.

Many of us have voiced our concerns about the state of transatlantic relations. We got used to the protection by the USA. We got used to the kind words, no matter what our deeds were. And we were sitting in the shade saving our resources when the US invested into our collective defence.

We may not like the tone of communication with Europe. We definitely don´t like the threats of new trade restrictions on our cars. And we are not happy that the trade and economic cooperation is far below what we could do together.

But we have no arguments, especially in the light of our ambitions, against the criticism that we don´t do enough for our security. That we do not invest enough in it.

If Europe wants to be a respected actor, it cannot depend on someone else´s assistance every time it wants to pursue its interests.

Don´t get me wrong. I am not primarily speaking about building new institutions. New structures. Or new European armed forces. I am convinced that if we invest into our forces, we strengthen the European pillar of NATO. And we strengthen Europe. This is why we need to invest into our forces, not into new structures. To be able to act independently as Europe, when we decide so.

To make our Europe stronger, we need unity. We need capabilities. And we need a will to act.

First, our unity. We need to speak with one voice. Not as 28 different states. And we can do that. We already have done so. We agreed to impose sanctions for the illegal annexation of Crimea – as one. We speak with one voice in Brexit. But unfortunately we hear many different voices when it comes to Nord Stream 2. Or peace in the Middle East.

To fulfil our ambitions, we need a strong foreign policy. It is time to realize that our weak political voice will never grow strong, if we put our national interests before the European ones. Because then, while we argue, the others take the lead. Our Eastern neighbourhood is still at stake. And in Syria, Iraq or Venezuela actors like Russia, Iran or Turkey have much stronger voice than our 28 states.

Second, our capability. To back our voice. Without concrete contributions into our security and capabilities, our ambitions will remain only a vision. If Europe wants to be treated differently, even by our Ally over the Atlantic, we must do more. The operation over Libya showed a natural ambition of Europe to lead. But this ambition was hampered by our missing capabilities. Part of them should come out of our joint research and development. To have competitive products for a reasonable price. Today, we are far from both. Once we achieve it, we will buy more in Europe, than elsewhere. And it will not be just another business opportunity for some. But a strategic element of our security and sustainability.

Third, our will. To be ready and willing to deploy these capabilities. Either as NATO, or as Europe. To be present and act where our interests are at stake. As the others do. For that, we need to look into our decision-making, to make it faster and flexible.

And lastly, technologies

While it takes weeks to months for the conventional threats to turn into a real danger, in case of technology-related threats it may take seconds to minutes. If we do not take it seriously in Europe, no military investments will compensate the damages of our ignorance.

In the recent months, we all learned about the 5G technology. Not because we could already enjoy its benefits. But because we have finally begun a serious discussion on how these technologies are linked to our security. And how ignorant we have been so far.

This is a much more complex issue than the purely business-driven affair, as the critics claim. I am convinced that our technological recklessness and lack of strategic thinking in this area is a serious threat to our security. If there is one area, where we need to act immediately, then it should be this one.

To make it short, the 5G will become the backbone, the new critical infrastructure of our society. It will connect our homes, hospitals, universities, cities and autonomous infrastructure. And yet, we pay so little attention to its importance. I am shocked how carelessly and how little we think before we are willing to give it to someone else hands. What worries me even more is that instead of thinking strategically, we only count how much we can save today. And ignore, that tomorrow, it can cost us billions to build it anew. Instead of putting our security first, we discuss fairness of public procurement.

We need to think in terms of technology, security and strategy together. We absolutely ignore the strategic importance of a jointly owned and developed European technology. Not only in terms of a new European supersonic fighter, or armed vehicle. I am talking about the European Chip.

This most sensitive part of the infrastructure must stay in our European hands. And not to be given to someone who can switch off our infrastructure in a second. Or just stop providing support. To leave us vulnerable.

That is why I consider the question of European Chip of a more strategic security issue. With far more serious security impacts, than any current thinking of building new security institutions in the EU.

Because this is not only about data or network protection. It is about our ambition. To be safe, to think big in our ambitions, but to pay attention to small details, when preparing for it.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
I kept saying my entire mandate, that the EU is not a problem, but a solution to our problems in Europe. And our Alliance with the North America is the strongest and the most important bond we, Europeans, have ever had in and with the free world. To strengthen it further, to show we are ready to face any challenge, we need a strong and united Europe. Ready and well prepared. This is the Europe I would like to see in the future. This is the Europe that will be a partner for our closest Allies on the other bank of the Atlantic. This is the Europe that our citizens deserve. We are able to have such Europe. And we can afford it. And we definitely deserve it.

Thank you.“

Defence & SecurityGLOBSEC 2019Publications
[ June 6, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

European Defence at a Crossroads: GESI Political Framework Paper

The aim of European Defence is to enhance the European role and participation in ensuring security in the Euro-Atlantic space and in its neighbourhood. To this end the European Union needs to raise its commitment to contribute to European Defence in full synergy and coordination with NATO and in close and open cooperation with non-EU European countries and allies, in particular with the post-Brexit United Kingdom. The

European Defence’s ultimate goal should not be the ‘’DeNATOization of Europe’’ but to strengthen the Atlantic Alliance through the “Europeanization of NATO.” The case for European Defence is overwhelming – Europeans needs a defence and security capacity that they only partially possess. The rationale for moving forward is self-explanatory: prosperous democracies must be able to adequately protect themselves and their citizens from external threats. Security cannot be fully subcontracted – even to a staunch and reliable ally. However, European Defence needs NATO and will not be credible without NATO at its core. The more European Defence in NATO, the more NATO will defend the Europeans.

GLOBSEC European Security Initiative Steering Committee advocates that the key elements of the strategy for the EU and their Allies to achieve this goal should be:

1.  NATO to remain as the “Cornerstone” of European collective security. For European Defence to become credible, NATO needs to stay in Europe together with European Defence.

2. EU-NATO cooperation is crucial. Remarkable and extremely encouraging progress has been made in the last two years by the two organisations under the stewardship of High Representative Federica Mogherini and Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. European Defence must build on it and take it further.

3.  Keep the Brits in.  Without the United Kingdom the EU loses approximately a quarter of its overall military capabilities (not to mention one of its two nuclear powers and Permanent Member of the UN Security Council). The UK must be a fully-fledged participant either by creating a larger-than-EU Security sphere which should also include countries such as Norway and Turkey or by a specific EU-UK bilateral agreement. Such agreements should also be extended to include an open door to participation in EU initiatives such as PESCO & the implementation of the European Defence Fund (EDF) on a “pay to play” basis.

4.  Come to terms with the changing global realities.  Looking ahead, European security needs also to be placed in a global fast changing strategic context. In a scenario of heightened military confrontation between the US and China in the Indo/Pacific area the responsibility of standing up to Russia in the Atlantic/Arctic area would fall mainly on European allies and Canada with probably a reduced American support due to the impact of this military Asian pivot. Such division of labour would be fully consistent with the Washington Treaty. It can be addressed only by gradually building a credible European Defence.

5. Move forward in measured steps.  Strategic autonomy, and a much more security proactive Europe, can only be achieved incrementally in measured steps to develop real capability with realistic ambitions.  What matters is the goal: to give the Europeans the ability that currently they do not have, or have only in a very limited way to engage a peer enemy in high intensity operations over a long period of time. This is what “strategic autonomy” should be about. It implies that the European Union needs to develop military capabilities that would allow European countries to meet certain areas of security challenges without NATO.

6.   Work towards a rational and realistic division of labour. The European Union should take the lead in addressing security challenges that cannot be met with military means only and/or require a civilian/military mix of responses.  We are not starting from scratch. From the Balkans to Africa the EU has built a good track record in relatively “soft” security missions mixing military footprint and civilian assistance and in focused operations such as the Atalanta counter piracy mission. The security problems arising from the South, by no means negligible, involve non-State actors. Solutions cannot be found in traditional military deterrence only; they must confront an array of complex issues related to state governance, political instability and economic development. NATO cannot do the South alone. Hence a gap to fill and a role for an enhanced European Defence, and specifically for EU’s contribution to it.

7.  Avoid duplications, allow flexibility, create additional capabilities.  The EU should aim at a “light” structure option and avoid duplicating the NATO Command Structure. Given the limited resources available, attempts at duplicating would only lead to two depleted Command Structures – better to integrate and ‘’Double Hat’’ appointees than burden nations with increasing the number of staff/command appointments they need to fill. Flexible, adjustable and scalable structures are best suited to integrate in the European Defence national ownership and coalition of the willing model, as needed and available. Initiatives such as the E21, can more easily accommodate national interests and different security priorities than a single unified structure with lengthy decision times.

8. Accept the 2% as a necessity and move on.  Increased defence spending is indispensable, especially by the countries that lag behind the NATO target of GDP 2%. However, it will not be sufficient if issues related to defence spending efficiency (procurement, mobility, standardization, coordination etc.) are not adequately addressed and if the EU Industrial base is not consolidated and strengthened.  Europeans need to spend more and better on defence and security. It will only be sustainable if the European Defence Industry is a beneficiary and if the EU industrial base is consolidated and strengthened, notably through European Defence Agency’s (EDA’s)  current endeavours and the financial resources of the new EDF.

9.  Translate European commitment into national implementation.  European governments have in fact agreed to do quite a few things on defence, witness progress being made with PESCO. Member States now have to deliver on their commitments by embedding those promises, policies and processes at home in their national defence establishments and among their military planners.

10. If we had to summarise in three points what is required for European Defence to succeed, three concurring elements will be essential:

  • a common strategic culture among European partners, meaning a common understanding of the security threats and challenges Europe is facing in the security field;
  • a common institutional framework capable of defining both strategic and operational concepts;
  • a common industrial base to build up the relevant military capabilities.

European Defence has the potential to boost the security credentials of the EU while enhancing rather than weakening NATO.

GLOBSEC European Security Initiative Steering Committee     1 June 2019

GLOBSEC European Security Initiative builds on the expertise acquired and momentum of the GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative (GNAI) seeking to shape policy debates that decrease the imbalance in transatlantic defence capabilities. The primary objective of the GESI Initiative is to produce innovative and straightforward policy recommendations that empower Europe’s defence capabilities and operational readiness for a wide spectrum of challenges. GESI mission is not to support the creation of parallel European military-political structures to NATO, but rather to propose an avenue for a new level of European defence competence.

GLOBSEC European Security Initiative Steering Committee

Gen. Knud Bartels (Ret.) – Danish Chief of Defence, Staff 2009-2011, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee 2012-2015

Gen. Wolf-Dieter Langheld (Ret.) – Commander Allied Joint Forces Headquarters, Brunssum 2010-2012

H.E. Rastislav Káčer – Ambassador (Ret.) to the United States and Hungary, Honorary Chairman of GLOBSEC

H.E. Stefano Stefanini – Ambassador (Ret.), Permanent Representative of Italy to NATO and Diplomatic Advisor to the President of Italy, Giorgio Napolitano 2007-2010

H.E. Pierre Vimont – Ambassador (Ret.) to the United States, former Executive Secretary-General of the European External Action Service

GLOBSEC Project Team:

Alena Kudzko, Deputy Research Director, GLOBSEC Policy Institute

John Barter, Defence and Security Adviser, GLOBSEC

Download the full report here.

 

GLOBSEC 2019
[ June 5, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

GLOBSEC Megatrends 2019

We live in a dynamic world, where predicting the future is becoming increasingly challenging,
because the risks we are facing are more complex than ever. Fascinating high-tech innovations and technological
disruption bring a new dimension to nearly every aspect of life on the planet from the public sphere to
strategic actors in the way we live, work, communicate, travel, and consume news. The rapid pace of
transformation has proven that the future will look nothing like the present. In order to face the challenges
of the future, we need to identify them and prepare for them now.

The top experts of the GLOBSEC Policy Institute have decided to take on this challenge, in the form of
a short experimental exercise. Based on year-round research activities at GLOBSEC, they identified major
trends related to their areas of expertise, which they believe are of utmost importance when it comes to
the future of our societies. It would be a rather hopeless task if the list had an ambition to be exhaustive or
if the trends, we are writing about were to be properly explained or described. We aim to call the readers’
attention to important trends and exciting technological disruptions already happening now or are to
come in the near future. To spark our readers’ imagination, we included a number of “what if?” scenarios
not to fully prepare you for hypothetical events, but to stimulate your mind to think ahead, be innovative,
creative, and open to solve new challenges. Therefore, this publication is a collection of essays to spark
your mind and challenge you.

Each year, several thousands of participants gather at GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum over three days to take
part in dozens of events and sessions with topics spanning from technology, innovation through trade,
to security and defence, and beyond. The level of detail and richness of debate at Central Europe’s leading
forum on international issues can indeed be overwhelming. We invite you to cluster the details around
several major trends and join GLOBSEC Policy Institute experts in discussing these strategic issues.

GLOBSEC 2019Publications
[ June 3, 2019 by Team Globsec 0 Comments ]

GLOBSEC Trends 2019: Central and Eastern Europe 30 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain

Genesis Expo will gather over 5,000 CTOs in one place, and about another 11,000 engineers. If you are a first time dev at Expo this post should help you think about your trip.